Scored under the Forecast Scoring Methodology
Forecast Record
Accuracy vs Consensus
−29%
90% range −66% to −5%
47 calls · 19 releases and meetings
Accuracy vs Naive Forecast
+29%
90% range +12% to +43%
Consensus vs naive: +45%
Not yet statistically distinguishable from consensus under the primary test.
The first figure compares the size of Register‑Guard Capital's misses with consensus's misses on the same releases, each scaled to a normal-sized miss for its metric. Above zero means our misses have been smaller; a tie counts as exactly as good as consensus.
The second compares our misses with a naive forecast, the last published value before each release (no change, for the Federal Reserve). It shows whether a forecast adds anything over simply assuming last month repeats, and the consensus figure beside it shows the same for Wall Street.
Primary test: Diebold-Mariano with the Harvey-Leybourne-Newbold correction on per-release edges,
statistic -2.00, p = 0.061.
At or better than consensus on 26 of 47 calls
(10 better, 16 tied, 21 worse).
Read the methodology
| Metric | Calls | At or better | Our avg miss | Consensus avg miss | Accuracy vs consensus | Vs naive: ours / consensus | 80% ranges hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment | |||||||
| Payrolls | 8 | 3/8 (3-0-5) | 93.75k | 88.75k | −6% | +30% / +34% | · |
| Unemployment | 8 | 5/8 (0-5-3) | 0.1% | 0.063% | −60% | −60% / 0% | · |
| Wages YoY | 8 | 5/8 (2-3-3) | 0.2% | 0.163% | −23% | −23% / 0% | · |
| Inflation | |||||||
| Headline CPI YoY | 7 | 5/7 (2-3-2) | 0.157% | 0.157% | 0% | +54% / +54% | · |
| Core CPI YoY | 7 | 2/7 (1-1-5) | 0.129% | 0.043% | −200% | −13% / +63% | · |
| Headline CPI MoM | 2 | 0/2 (0-0-2) | 0.05% | 0.00% | n/a | +88% / +100% | · |
| Core CPI MoM | 3 | 2/3 (2-0-1) | 0.10% | 0.117% | +14% | +40% / +30% | · |
| Federal Reserve | |||||||
| Fed decision | 4 | 4/4 (0-4-0) | 0 bp | 0 bp | n/a | +100% / +100% | · |
Win-tie-loss in parentheses (against consensus). Averages are in each metric's own units. Ranges are required from the first paper published under the methodology; earlier calls stated none.
80% range record
·
No ranged calls scored yet.
Range skill vs benchmark
n/a
Scored once ranged calls resolve.
FOMC probability score
·
Scored for meetings under the methodology.
Longer-horizon calls
·
None scored yet.
| Question | Test | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Are our total misses smaller than consensus's? (primary) | Diebold-Mariano, HLN correction | stat -2.00, p = 0.061, n = 19 releases |
| Are our misses smaller than a naive forecast's? | Diebold-Mariano, HLN correction, and Wilcoxon | stat 2.24, p = 0.038; Wilcoxon p = 0.079; consensus vs naive p = 0.004 |
| Plausible range of the headline | Bootstrap, 10,000 resamples of releases | 90% range −66% to −5% |
| Do we win more often than we lose? | Sign test, ties excluded | 10 of 31 untied calls, p = 0.071 |
| Do we win by more than we lose? | Wilcoxon signed-rank on per-release edges | p = 0.073, n = 15 (normal approx.) |
| Right more often than consensus on FOMC decisions? | McNemar (exact) | no disagreements with a clear winner yet (4 meetings) |
| Are our 80% ranges honest? | Exact binomial vs 80% | no ranged calls yet |
| Does our edge differ by release type? | Fisher-Freeman-Halton exact (Monte Carlo, 10,000) | p = 0.095, df = 4 |
| When we differ from consensus, does the actual land on our side? | Binomial vs 50% | 13 of 22, p = 0.523; consensus exact 12 more (excluded) |
| Do our calls beat our internal models? | Diebold-Mariano and Wilcoxon | no model outputs logged yet |
| Is the result sensitive to the scoring units? | Each unit halved and doubled in turn | headline −40% to −22%, primary p = 0.041 to 0.120 |
Only the primary test supports a claim of greater accuracy; the rest are supporting evidence. Per-metric sign and signed-rank tests are Holm-adjusted and shown in the admin view of the ledger. Tests run at the 5% level, two-sided.
| Metric | Ours | 80% range | Consensus | Naive | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 · FOMC meeting September 15-16, 2026 | ||||||
|
Fed decision pre-methodology RGC FRRG 9_16_26 |
+25 bp | · | +25 bp CME FedWatch |
0 bp | +25 bp | Tie |
| Sep 11, 2026 · August 2026 Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|
Headline CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 9_11_26 |
3.5% | · | 3.3% FactSet |
3.4% | 3.4% | Tie |
|
Core CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 9_11_26 |
2.5% | · | 2.4% FactSet |
2.5% | 2.4% | Worse |
|
Headline CPI MoM pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 9_11_26 |
0.45% | · | 0.40% FactSet |
0.10% | 0.40% | Worse |
|
Core CPI MoM pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 9_11_26 |
0.29% | · | 0.20% FactSet |
0.20% | 0.30% | Better |
| Sep 4, 2026 · August 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 9_4_26 |
40k | · | 55k Bloomberg |
-23k | 162k | Worse |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 9_4_26 |
4.2% | · | 4.1% Bloomberg |
4.1% | 4.1% | Worse |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 9_4_26 |
3.0% | · | 3.1% RSM |
3.2% | 3.1% | Worse |
| Aug 12, 2026 · July 2026 Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|
Headline CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 8_12_26 |
3.5% | · | 3.4% Bloomberg |
3.5% | 3.4% | Worse |
|
Core CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 8_12_26 |
2.6% | · | 2.5% Bloomberg |
2.6% | 2.5% | Worse |
|
Headline CPI MoM pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 8_12_26 |
0.15% | · | 0.10% Bloomberg |
-0.40% | 0.10% | Worse |
|
Core CPI MoM pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 8_12_26 |
0.28% | · | 0.20% Bloomberg |
0.00% | 0.20% | Worse |
| Aug 7, 2026 · July 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 8_7_26 |
95k | · | 85k Bloomberg |
57k | -23k | Worse |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 8_7_26 |
4.2% | · | 4.2% Bloomberg |
4.2% | 4.1% | Tie |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 8_7_26 |
3.5% | · | 3.5% Other |
3.5% | 3.2% | Tie |
| Jul 29, 2026 · FOMC meeting July 28-29, 2026 | ||||||
|
Fed decision pre-methodology RGC FRRG 7_29_26 |
0 bp | · | 0 bp CME FedWatch |
0 bp | 0 bp | Tie |
| Jul 14, 2026 · June 2026 Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|
Headline CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 7_14_26 |
3.8% | · | 3.9% FactSet |
4.2% | 3.5% | Better |
|
Core CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 7_14_26 |
2.9% | · | 2.8% FactSet |
2.9% | 2.6% | Worse |
|
Core CPI MoM pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 7_14_26 |
0.21% | · | 0.25% FactSet |
0.20% | 0.00% | Better |
| Jul 2, 2026 · June 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 7_2_26 |
110k | · | 100k FactSet |
172k | 57k | Worse |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 7_2_26 |
4.3% | · | 4.3% FactSet |
4.3% | 4.2% | Tie |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 7_2_26 |
3.7% | · | 3.7% FactSet |
3.4% | 3.5% | Tie |
| Jun 17, 2026 · FOMC meeting June 16-17, 2026 | ||||||
|
Fed decision pre-methodology RGC FRRG 6_17_26 |
0 bp | · | 0 bp CME FedWatch |
0 bp | 0 bp | Tie |
| Jun 10, 2026 · May 2026 Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|
Headline CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 6_10_26 |
4.3% | · | 4.3% FactSet |
3.8% | 4.2% | Tie |
|
Core CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 6_10_26 |
3.0% | · | 2.9% FactSet |
2.8% | 2.9% | Worse |
| Jun 5, 2026 · May 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 6_5_26 |
120k | · | 105k FactSet |
115k | 172k | Better |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 6_5_26 |
4.3% | · | 4.3% FactSet |
4.3% | 4.3% | Tie |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 6_5_26 |
3.5% | · | 3.6% FactSet |
3.6% | 3.4% | Better |
| May 8, 2026 · April 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 5_8_26 |
95k | · | 65k FactSet |
178k | 115k | Better |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 5_8_26 |
4.3% | · | 4.3% FactSet |
4.3% | 4.3% | Tie |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 5_8_26 |
3.5% | · | 3.8% FactSet |
3.5% | 3.6% | Better |
| Apr 29, 2026 · FOMC meeting April 28-29, 2026 | ||||||
|
Fed decision pre-methodology RGC FRRG 4_29_26 |
0 bp | · | 0 bp CME FedWatch |
0 bp | 0 bp | Tie |
| Apr 10, 2026 · March 2026 Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|
Headline CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 4_10_26 |
3.6% | · | 3.7% Morningstar |
2.4% | 3.3% | Better |
|
Core CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 4_10_26 |
2.6% | · | 2.7% Morningstar |
2.5% | 2.6% | Better |
| Apr 3, 2026 · March 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 4_3_26 |
35k | · | 60k FactSet |
-92k | 178k | Worse |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 4_3_26 |
4.5% | · | 4.4% FactSet |
4.4% | 4.3% | Worse |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RGC Employment Guard 4_3_26 |
3.8% | · | 3.8% FactSet |
3.8% | 3.5% | Tie |
| Mar 11, 2026 · February 2026 Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|
Headline CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 3_11_26 |
2.3% | · | 2.4% Bloomberg |
2.4% | 2.4% | Worse |
|
Core CPI YoY pre-methodology RGC Inflation Guard 3_11_26 |
2.5% | · | 2.5% Bloomberg |
2.5% | 2.5% | Tie |
| Mar 6, 2026 · February 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RGC Employment Memo 3_6_26 |
90k | · | 50k Dow Jones |
130k | -92k | Worse |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RGC Employment Memo 3_6_26 |
4.2% | · | 4.3% Dow Jones |
4.3% | 4.4% | Worse |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RGC Employment Memo 3_6_26 |
3.6% | · | 3.7% Dow Jones |
3.7% | 3.8% | Worse |
| Feb 13, 2026 · January 2026 Consumer Price Index | ||||||
|
Headline CPI YoY pre-methodology RG Capital Inflation Memo 2_13_26 |
2.3% | · | 2.5% Dow Jones |
2.7% | 2.4% | Tie |
|
Core CPI YoY pre-methodology RG Capital Inflation Memo 2_13_26 |
2.8% | · | 2.5% Dow Jones |
2.6% | 2.5% | Worse |
| Feb 11, 2026 · January 2026 Employment Situation | ||||||
|
Payrolls pre-methodology RG Capital Employment Memo 2_11_26 |
70k | · | 55k Dow Jones |
50k | 130k | Better |
|
Unemployment pre-methodology RG Capital Employment Memo 2_11_26 |
4.2% | · | 4.4% Dow Jones |
4.4% | 4.3% | Tie |
|
Wages YoY pre-methodology RG Capital Employment Memo 2_11_26 |
3.4% | · | 3.7% Dow Jones |
3.8% | 3.7% | Worse |